Today, the Berlin Wall, which stood for 10,316 days, has been down for… 10,316 days.
Many thanks to Jeff Mayer and Marshall Mayer for telling me about the date.
Prof. Westad is one of the great historians of the Cold War. One of his great contributions has been to expand our understanding of the bipolar contest beyond the central front in Europe to include across Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia.
Prof. Michael Mandelbaum is one of the great analysts of US foreign policy, during that era and today. He is also among the most lucid of writers and appreciates that quality in others.
So, when Mandelbaum praises Westad’s latest book, The Cold War: A World History, as the “definitive account,” it is worth taking very seriously.
To quote Mandelbaum:
At a certain point after an historical chapter closes it becomes possible to write an account of it that incorporates such consensus as exists, and that may therefore stand as reliable, and as close to definitive as it is possible to come, for a generation. The Cold War, extinct for more than a quarter century, has reached that point, and with The Cold War: A World History, Odd Arne Westad has written such an account….
The book’s explanation of the two most important and controversial features of the Cold War—its origins and its conclusion—are likely to stand the test of time. The defeat of Germany and the severe weakening of Great Britain and France in World War II left a vacuum of power in Europe, the heart of the international system. The United States and the Soviet Union filled it. They became competitors rather than cooperating with each other because of their strongly held and incompatible ideologies. –Mandelbaum on Westad
Mandelbaum points to several areas where Westad’s account could be stronger, or where his interpretations could be contested, but his overall conclusion is strongly positive.
Like the old advertisement that says, “With a name like Smucker’s, it has to be good.”
With a name like “Odd,” it has to be even-handed. And so it is, says Mandelbaum:
A book such as this one renders many judgments, and they are, for the most part, balanced. –Mandelbaum on Westad
Mandelbaum is too thoughtful to put it like this, so I will: Westad meets the Smucker’s standard.
Articles chosen with care. Your comments welcomed.
Linked articles in bold purple
◆ Democrats win big in off-year elections. The most important: a surprisingly large victory in the Virginia Governor’s race
Comment: NJ returning to a Democratic governor is not surprising. In Virginia, which is shifting from purple to a blue state because of the DC suburbs, the surprise is not Ralph Northam’s win but his 9-point margin over a good Republican candidate, Ed Gillespie.
Northam’s margin tells me Democrats are motivated, even after a divisive primary. Hillary won Virginia by 5 points. Down-ballot Democrats are also doing very well.
◆ President Trump’s begins his biggest stop: Beijing
There are three major issues on the table: North Korea, China’s expansion in the South China Sea, and China’s asymmetrical trade relations with the US.
Comment: More on this stop as news emerges.
◆ Texas Mass Killing: “Botched Air Force handling of Texas shooter’s criminal history may be ‘systemic’ issue” (Fox News)
The 2015 Department of Defense Inspector General report analyzed a sample of 1,102 convictions, including felonies, handled in the military court system and found the Navy, Air Force and Marines failed to send criminal history or fingerprint data to the FBI in about 30 percent of them. –Fox News
◆ Ratcheting up the financial sanctions on Chinese banks doing business with North Korea (Reuters)
Senate Finance Committee votes unanimously on these sanctions, just as Pres. Trump lands in Beijing.
The U.S. Senate Banking Committee unanimously backed new sanctions targeting Chinese banks that do business with North Korea on Tuesday, just before President Donald Trump visits Beijing for the first time since taking office….
Washington so far has largely held off on imposing new sanctions against Chinese banks and companies doing business with North Korea, given fears of retaliation by Beijing and possibly far-reaching effects on the world economy.–Reuters
◆ Curiouser and Curiouser: Russian lawyer who met with Trump Jr also met with FusionGPS before and after the Trump Tower meeting (Fox News)
The story about Fusion GPS’s Glenn Simpson and Russian attorney, Natalia Veselnitskaya, comes from one of our best investigative reporters, Catherine Herridge.
The co-founder of Fusion GPS, the firm behind the unverified Trump dossier, met with a Russian lawyer before and after a key meeting she had last year with Trump’s son, Fox News has learned. The contacts shed new light on how closely tied the firm was to Russian interests, at a time when it was financing research to discredit then-candidate Donald Trump….
Simpson and Fusion GPS were hired by BakerHostetler, which represented Russian firm Prevezon through Veselnitskaya. –Catherine Herridge for Fox News
Comment: So, Fusion GPS was simultaneously working for this Russian firm and the Clinton campaign. That could be an innocent coincidence . . . or it could lead to some “synergies.” So far, Fusion GPS has taken the 5th before Congressional investigative committees and fiercely resisted subpoenas for any records of their financial transactions.
“Oh, what a tangled web we weave . . . ”
Articles chosen with care. Your comments welcomed.
Linked articles in bold purple
◆ Biggest story of the week is just under the radar: China’s Xi is consolidating his power to become most powerful leader since Mao
Comment: This week’s Party Congress, held every five years, is the moment when Xi will try to push aside many of the constraints installed after Mao to prevent one-man rule. He has already done a lot of that, installing his people in the military and using the anti-corruption campaign to remove adversaries (and leave political friends and family untouched).
By the end of the week, we’ll know if Xi has succeeded since some rule-breaking will be obvious by then (particularly waiving a rule that would require his political enforcer to retire because of age).
◆ No Cigar for the Drug Czar: Nominee Tom Marino Withdraws after news reports he weakened an anti-opioid bill (Washington Post)
The Washington Post/CBS 60 Minutes piece showed he not only weakened the bill, his office was very close to big pharma companies with interest in the legislation.
Comment: The swift move by Trump was inevitable after the report, given Trump’s focus on the Washington Swamp and the importance of opioid issues to the country and especially to his base.
◆ FBI Uncovered Russian Bribery Plot Before Obama Administration Approved Controversial Nuclear Deal with Moscow (The Hill)
Before the deal was approved
The FBI had gathered substantial evidence that Russian nuclear industry officials were engaged in bribery, kickbacks, extortion and money laundering designed to grow Vladimir Putin’s atomic energy business inside the United States, according to government documents and interviews.
Federal agents used a confidential U.S. witness working inside the Russian nuclear industry to gather extensive financial records, make secret recordings and intercept emails as early as 2009 that showed Moscow had compromised an American uranium trucking firm with bribes and kickbacks in violation of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, FBI and court documents show.
They also obtained an eyewitness account — backed by documents — indicating Russian nuclear officials had routed millions of dollars to the U.S. designed to benefit former President Bill Clinton’s charitable foundation during the time Secretary of State Hillary Clinton served on a government body that provided a favorable decision to Moscow, sources told The Hill. –John Solomon and Alison Spann in The Hill
◆ Austria’s new leader: very young (31), very opposed to floods of new immigrants (x)
NYT headline: Austria Shifts Right as Refashioned Conservatives Win. Socialists finished third, slightly behind nationalist-populist “Freedom Party”
Under Mr. Kurz, the staid, traditionally conservative People’s Party was refashioned into a social-media-savvy political movement that attracted hundreds of thousands of new supporters in a campaign focused on limiting immigration and strengthening the country’s social welfare system.
Kurz will need to form a coalition government.
The most likely coalition partner appeared to be the nationalist, populist Freedom Party, which initial results showed winning 27.1 percent of the vote. The party complained during the election campaign that Mr. Kurz had stolen its playbook, seizing on issues like limits to immigration and the threat posed to Austrian identity by Islam.–New York Times
◆ North Korea warns that “nuclear war could break out at any moment” (Bloomberg)
Comment: Kim Jong Un’s desire for a deliverable nuclear arsenal is comprehensible as a defense for his regime. These kinds of threats are not comprehensible–or are badly misjudged. Presumably, they are trying to move the US off any military option. But Kim’s statements do highlight the very real danger of accident or inadvertent escalation.
◆ Trump and McConnell show unity . . . at least for now
The New York Times story is here.
Comment: It is all tactical, and it’s all about the tax reform bill, which is essential politically for Republicans on the Hill.
They will also look for other areas to notch some wins, including judicial nominees, which have moved far too slowly through the Senate, as conservatives see it. Democrats have used every delaying tactic on the nominees and Republicans have let them get away with it.
Hat Tip to
◆ Clarice Feldman for the FBI-Russia story
Israel hacked Russia’s Kaspersky cyber labs, found code that could only have come from the NSA, then told the Americans (Washington Post)
In 2015, Israeli government hackers saw something suspicious in the computers of a Moscow-based cybersecurity firm: hacking tools that could only have come from the National Security Agency.
Israel notified the NSA, where alarmed officials immediately began a hunt for the breach, according to people familiar with the matter, who said an investigation by the agency revealed that the tools were in the possession of the Russian government.
Israeli spies had found the hacking material on the network of Kaspersky Lab, the global anti-virus firm under a spotlight in the United States because of suspicions that its products facilitate Russian espionage –Washington Post
Articles chosen with care. Your comments welcomed.
Linked articles in bold purple
◆ Deal on “Dreamers”? Only with other tough provisions on immigration, says White House (New York Times)
Before agreeing to provide legal status for 800,000 young immigrants brought here illegally as children, Mr. Trump will insist on the construction of a wall across the southern border, the hiring of 10,000 immigration agents, tougher laws for those seeking asylum and denial of federal grants to “sanctuary cities,” officials said. –NYT
Comment: Time for Democrats to do some polling.
◆ Saturday Night Live: Great spoof of OJ Simpson on a post-prison date, but radio silence about Harvey Weinstein (Fox News)
Lorne Michaels offered a lame, non-explanation.
Comment: My hunch is that they will have plenty next week, now that they know Harvey is not protected by their media friends.
Another interesting–and disturbing–story is how many publications knew about the harassment and never printed it.
◆ Some brave Russian journalists are risking their lives to investigate the Russian “troll farm” involved in the US election (Washington Post)
It’s the same troll farm that Mueller and the US Congress are investigating.
Comment: Right now, it’s a human-interest story. Let’s hope the Kremlin doesn’t make it a former-human interest story.
◆ Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones says players who don’t stand will be benched for that game (New York Post)
Jones also defended VP Mike Pence’s decision to leave the Indianapolis Colts’ game after some SF 49er players knelt for the national anthem.
Here’s the Dallas Morning News report on Jones’ decision.
◆ Ireland is issuing a new stamp
Comment: Be the first on your block to collect all the heroes in Ireland’s new “Honoring Murderers” Series.
The Red Brigades are the most collectible.