Polling averages and political betting markets as of Saturday, September 24.
♦ What about control of the Senate? Very tight race, with conflicting predictions.
- Princeton Election Consortium estimates the Republicans maintain control (49 seats to the Democratic side, including Independents who caucus with them).
- PredictIt market says the Democrats win will control (53% chance).
34 seats are up, 24 of them are Republican.
Aaron Blake, who writes “The Fix” for the Washington Post, sees the race boiling down to four toss-ups:
♦ New Hampshire
If Blake is correct about the other states, then the Democrats have to win 3 of these toss-ups if Hillary wins (because the 50-50 tie would then be broken by VP Tim Kaine).
If Trump wins, then the Democrats have to win all four toss-ups to flip the Senate.
Still, it is worth noting that this forecast assumes that all states go the direction they are “leaning.” That’s far from certain, and there are lot more of those iffy contests on the Republican side.
♦ Hat tip to Mike Bauer for sending me the article.
Polling averages and political betting markets as of Sunday, September 18.
♦ Which states are toss-ups?
- Real Clear Politics says: Ohio (18), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Colorado (9), Nevada (6), Arizona (11), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (20), New Hampshire (4), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16), Maine CD2 (1)
- Princeton’s Sam Wang says only North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Nevada
- Notice that both RCP and Princeton say the election now hinges on these toss-ups.
♦ Larry Sabato and his co-authors offer a very interesting perspective on why Clinton still maintains an Electoral College lead despite the fundamentals that should favor him (Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball)
Trump is neither mainstream nor conducting a campaign that is anything close technologically and financially to the Clinton effort.
In our view, this is why — along with strong partisan polarization — the contest, while close, has had Clinton pretty consistently in the lead: Trump is underperforming the fundamentals and reducing the odds of a GOP win.
Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley,
“The Fundamentals: Where Are We in This Strange Race for President?”
♦ What about control of the Senate? The Princeton Election Consortium estimates 50 Senate seats for each party. The PredictIt market gives the Republicans a slight edge. (H/t to David Vun Kannon for reminding me to include the Princeton numbers)
Clinton has a 68% chance of winning, according to the PredictIt! betting market (as of Sept. 7).
That’s a 3% decline since August 31, reflecting considerable tightening in several polls and a few showing the race effectively tied.
There’s been a steady drip-drip-drip of back news for Hillary, but informed players in the betting markets don’t think it will sink her, at least not yet.
Most prediction markets and polling averages still say Hillary Clinton is highly likely to win and that her electoral margin will be substantial. Trump’s likelihood of winning has increased by several percentage points in the betting markets after another week of disclosures from the FBI investigation.
Trump partisans point to some recent polls that show him leading. That’s why it is important to temper those evaluations with a look at the polling averages and political-prediction markets, which Zip Dialog presents regularly.
For Trump supporters, the most encouraging news comes from the Real Clear Politics electoral map, which shows 155 toss-up votes in the electoral college. If he surges in those states, he has a narrow path to victory.