Today, the Berlin Wall, which stood for 10,316 days, has been down for… 10,316 days.
Many thanks to Jeff Mayer and Marshall Mayer for telling me about the date.
A date that will live in symmetry
NATO
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ZipDialog Roundup for Wednesday, September 20
Articles chosen with care. Your comments welcomed.
Linked articles in bold purple◆ Pres. Trump’s speech to the UN was blunt and aimed squarely at North Korea, Iran, and Venezuela
It combined two main elements:
- A traditional Republican assertion of US military strength and global engagements
- Trump’s own nationalist, anti-globalist agenda, praising “strong sovereign nations” (not international institutions) as the basis of global order
The blunt language attracted a lot of attention. Conservatives (including many who don’t support Trump) were positive. Liberals cringed, longing for Obama’s soft tone, soft policies, and strategic patient.
He called the nuclear deal with Iran “an embarrassment” and “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the US has ever entered into.” He spoke of Iran’s aggressive support of terror and expansion in the Middle East. He specifically spoke about the threat from “Radical Islamic Terror,” words his predecessor never used (and that Trump himself has used less often in recent months).He said nothing about “democracy promotion,” a centerpiece of George W. Bush’s foreign policy.
His comment on Venezuela was equally blunt, saying they had turned a rich country into an impoverished failure and done so not because it misapplied socialist policies but because it applied them exactly as they were intended.
Without using the term “axis of evil,” his speech clearly echoed those themes from Pres. Bush’s War on Terror.
As CNN put it, “No American President has ever spoken to the world like this,” calling terrorists and some nations “evil.”
The best comment about the speech came from
Rich Lowery in the National Review Online:
As someone said on Twitter, never before has been there so much murmuring of “holy sh**” in so many different languages.
◆ Two natural disasters:
- Cat 5 Hurricane Maria hits Puerto Rico with 175 mph winds, the second major hurricane within a month
- Mexico suffers a 7.1 magnitude quake.
Numerous casualties and fatalities from both, unfortunately.
Comment: The best way to keep up with news about each is with your favorite breaking-news site online. The cable channels will show you the gritty aftermath but take hours to give you the hard news you can get in a few minutes reading.
◆ Republicans on the hill embrace big tax cuts, even if they increase the deficit (New York Times)
Senate Republicans, abandoning a key fiscal doctrine, agreed on Tuesday to move forward on a budget that would add to the federal deficit in order to pave the way for a $1.5 trillion tax cut over the next 10 years.The Republican lawmakers, under mounting pressure to score a legislative win on taxes, say a tax cut of this magnitude will stimulate economic growth enough to offset any deficit impact.
Yet critics say a deficit-financed tax cut is at odds with longstanding Republican calls for fiscal discipline, including that tax cuts not add to the ballooning federal deficit.
Comment: Tax bills must originate in the House, which is dribbling out some information but not the key details. Those should come in the next week or so.
◆ Former Chicago cop, wanted for shaking down drug dealers, has been arrested in Detroit after 15 years on the run (Chicago Tribune)He and his gang of corrupt officers were tripped up in 2001 when they tried one ripoff while the dealer happened to be on the phone with his girlfriend. She mistakenly thought another drug dealer was the robber and called the cops. Honest cops showed up, saw what was happening, and that was the beginning of the end.
◆ Turkey increasingly uses its thuggish, dictatorial tactics in Western democracies. It did it again this week
They did it in May, 2017, when Turkish security officers assaulted peaceful demonstrators in Washington, DC. (New York Times report here.)
This week, they tried to stop a speaker at a conference in Philadelphia. The event was hosted by the Middle East Forum (MEF) for the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, known as NATO-PA.
NATO PA organizers asked that MEF remove a speaker, Emre Çelik, from the program in response to a demand issued by the office of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. MEF removed the speaker from the program, but invited him to address the gathering anyway.When Çelik rose to speak, the Turkish delegation grew visibly agitated and acted quickly to shut down the event. –Middle East Forum
Daniel Pipes, who heads the Middle East Forum, spoke plainly about the incident, which was captured on video:
President Erdoğan’s attempt to stifle free speech at a Middle East Forum event today was despicable. We did not accept it. –Daniel Pipes
The MEF report on the incident is here.
◆ Paul Manafort wants investigations of leaks, which may have come from Special Counsel Mueller’s office, which is trying to rachet up the pressure on Manafort (Reuters)
“If true, it is a felony to reveal the existence of a FISA warrant, regardless of the fact that no charges ever emerged,” [Manafort’s spokesman said].“The U.S. Department of Justice’s Inspector General should immediately conduct an investigation into these leaks and to examine the motivations behind a previous administration’s effort to surveil a political opponent,” he said.
The special counsel’s office and the FBI both declined to comment on Maloni’s statement. They also did not comment on CNN’s original report about surveillance of Manafort. –Reuters
Comment: There are several disturbing aspects of this story, all requiring serious investigation. Manafort’s role is obviously one. So is the apparent release of secret information, the presence of a government wiretap on the manager of a political campaign, the possibility President Trump was picked up on the surveillance, and the statements by several Obama administration intelligence officials that they knew of no such surveillance. It is unclear if those officials made false statements under oath.
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ZipDialog Roundup for Labor Day, Monday, September 4
Articles chosen with care. Local sources when possible.
Your comments welcomed. Linked articles in bold purple◆ North Korea The question now is how hard will China push, given that this latest test
- Humiliates Beijing, flaunting their open calls to stop, and
- Will certainly bring extremely tough reaction from the US and its allies.
The US will seek very harsh sanctions at the UN, daring China and Russia to show their hands and veto.
The effect will turn on the scale of the sanctions and the willingness of China (and Russia) to comply in practice, not just in rhetoric.
For news, link here. (Washington Post)
China says Trump’s trade threat over North Korea is “unacceptable” (Fox News)
Comment: The US says the same about China’s behavior toward North Korea.
Watch to see if China cuts off fuel for a few days. If they don’t, it’s all rope-a-dope game for them, and the US-China relationship will get very tense.
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DACA deferrals for illegal immigrants likely to end six-months from now. Trump action gives Congress time to act (Politico)Comment: Nearly all legal scholars agree that Obama’s actions on DACA were unconstitutional and won’t survive a legal challenge.
So Congress has to act. Trump has not signalled what bill would be acceptable to him.
◆ Turkey continues to slam Germany rhetorically, as Erdogan ramps up his Islamist dictatorship (Washington Post)
Comment: Erdogan has recently referred to NATO allies as “enemies”
◆ Congress returns Tuesday with crushing agenda (New York Magazine)
Harvey relief- Debt ceiling
- Funding for major programs that are running out, such as Children’s Health Insurance
- Tax cuts and tax reform
- Healthcare (still lurking, hasn’t been addressed)
- DACA
- Confirmation of dozens of Trump nominees (all of which the Democrats are delaying)
Comment: Several of these are must do’s, and the Republicans know it.
◆ Hong Kong, traditional an economic leader, now slowing in innovation and other areas (South China Morning Post)Comment: China, which promised (by treaty with UK), to let Hong Kong govern itself, has effectively scuttled that promise.
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A Mystery Wrapped in an Enigma: Two Important Articles on Russia vs. US and NATO
America is preoccupied, understandably, with its deep internal divisions, roiled by the riots and killing in Charlottesville and Pres. Trump’s reaction.
But major world events don’t stop while we are preoccupied, whether it is with race relations at home or Kim Jong Un abroad.
Russian expansion and NATO’s response to it remains one of America’s most important–and dangerous–security challenges.
Here are two probing articles on US-NATO-Russian relations, one from a leading US strategist, the other from a country Russia invaded a decade ago, Georgia.
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Michael Mandelbaum is one of America’s leading thinkers on international relations and US foreign policy. A centrist and a Realist, he writes here about NATO’s role:
“Pay Up, Europe: What Trump Gets Right About NATO” (Foreign Affairs, subscription)
European leaders may find [Trump’s] demands grating, especially given Trump’s unpopularity among their constituents, but they should heed them. In recent years, Europe has become a dangerous place. In search of domestic support, Russian President Vladimir Putin has turned to aggression abroad, invading Ukraine and intervening in Syria….Putin will always need new victims. That makes him an ongoing threat. Just when NATO has once again become necessary for Europe’s security, however, Trump’s election has thrown the future of the U.S. role in the alliance into doubt.
For these reasons, Trump is right: to strengthen NATO and encourage the United States to continue its commitment to European security, the alliance’s European members should contribute more. Just as important for European and Western security, however, is for the United States to lead other multilateral initiatives to defend the interests and values that North America and Europe have in common. Without that leadership, Europe—and the rest of the world—will be a harsher place. –Michael Mandelbaum in Foreign Affairs mag.
Mandelbaum’s conclusion:
For Western responses to expansive Chinese and Russian conduct to succeed, the United States must lead the way. Only it has the power and the standing to launch global initiatives of this kind, as it did, for example, in 1990, when President George H. W. Bush assembled the worldwide coalition that evicted Iraqi forces from Kuwait. Unfortunately, Trump has shown neither the inclination nor the ability to exercise such leadership.Forming a global coalition to resist Chinese economic bullying and Russian aggression will also require a broad sense of community among democracies, based not only on shared interests but also on common values. –Michael Mandelbaum in Foreign Affairs mag.
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The same issues is examined by one of Israel’s top think tanks, BESA (the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University).
The author, Emil Avdaliani, observes these issues from a sensitive location, Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia.
Russia invaded a portion of Georgia in 2008 and still holds territory there.
Russia Feels American Pressure, writes Avdaliani.
Russian-US relations have reached their lowest point since the end of the Cold War. President Donald Trump has signed a new package of anti-Russian sanctions into law and increased the US military presence across former Soviet territory and eastern Europe. He also sent VP Mike Pence on a tour of Estonia, Montenegro, and Georgia – a trip viewed by Moscow as western encroachment on an area it considers a buffer zone.This standoff does not mean the two superpowers will not be able to find common ground in other areas, but the potential for cooperation is limited. Former Soviet territory will likely remain a major confrontation line between the US and Russia. –Emil Avdaliani for BESA
Russia’s economy is too weak to impose serious counter-sanctions, says Avdaliani.
There are some areas for US-Russian cooperation, he thinks, but they are sharply limited.
There are reasons for Moscow to be worried. American politicians openly state how supportive the US will be towards eastern European countries and Georgia in the event that Russia increases its military capabilities in the region…..A steady US/NATO military and security buildup is underway in eastern Europe and the South Caucasus.
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US-Russian Relations: What matters but isn’t covered in all the tabloid news
Russia’s interference in America’s 2016 election matters. So do any possible connections to the Trump campaign
But the media’s obsession with those issues is missing other major developments in US-Russian relations
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The news about US-Russian-European relations goes far beyond the 2016 election interference and possible connections to the Trump campaign.
On the international stage, Vladimir Putin has skilfully played a very weak hand, while the US misplayed its own for 8 years. Putin has taken an economy the size of Italy’s and returned it to status as an international power.
It is Iran’s major outside supporter and a major player in Syria, where, in return for supporting the Assad regime, it has acquired major bases.
It has used Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas for political leverage.
And it has effectively offered to step in and assist North Korea if they want assistance beyond China’s.
But he can only stay in power by running a corrupt kleptocracy, in close alignment with the oligarchs, with everything stage-managed from Moscow.
That’s a good way for him to stay in power, but it is a terrible way to grow a diverse, modern economy. Over the long run, the Russian economy will continue to sputter as the US grows.
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What has the Trump Administration done to cope with Putin internationally?The media focus has been entirely on US weakness, especially Trump’s mixed statements about NATO and his inexplicable reluctance to recognize the threat from Russia in clear, unambiguous language. There has been some focus on the recent cease-fire in Syria, too.
But there is much more to the story. And all these other developments put pressure on a Kremlin ill-equipped to handle it.
NATO
On NATO, as I have noted, Trump is now a firm supporter but he still wants two major changes: a focus on terrorism and fair-share payments from European partners, as they promised. One reasonable interpretation of his threats to back away from NATO is that they are meant to get Europe to pay up.Poland
In Poland, Trump did more than make a speech (a very good one in my opinion, a very bad one in the opinion of Democrats). He also agreed to an important arms sale the Obama Administration had refused.
In a move set to counter Russia’s reinforcement on NATO’s borders, Poland and the U.S. have agreed that Warsaw will purchase the American-made Patriot air defense missile, the Polish government announced Thursday.Although Poland is a long-term advocate for more U.S. military presence in Europe, Russia’s decision to deploy Iskander missile systems on its borders in November made the demand for assistance more urgent. The S-400 surface-to-air missiles and nuclear-capable Iskander systems are set to be delivered in Kaliningrad, Russia’s exclave bordering Poland. –Newsweek, story here
Ukraine
Totally missing from news coverage is the startling news that Ukraine is now openly seeking NATO membership–understandable, given the Russian threat, but an open insult to the Kremlin, which refused even to let Ukraine strike a trade deal with the EU.
The Reuters story is headlines: “Pledging Reforms by 2020, Ukraine Seeks Route into NATO”
[Ukraine’s] President Petro Poroshenko, whose country is fighting a Kremlin-backed insurgency in eastern Ukraine, revived the prospect of NATO membership during a visit by NATO Secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg who himself used the occasion to call on Moscow to withdraw its troops from Ukraine.“Ukraine has clearly defined its political future and its future in the sphere of security,” Poroshenko speaking to reporters alongside Stoltenberg.
“Today we clearly stated that we would begin a discussion about a membership action plan and our proposals for such a discussion were accepted with pleasure.”
Russia, deeply opposed to enlargement of NATO toward its borders, weighed in quickly, saying the prospect of NATO membership for Ukraine would not promote stability and security in Europe. –Reuters
It’s unclear how NATO will approach this or what the Trump Administration will say (or even if it will speak with one voice).
But the very fact that Ukraine has raised the NATO issue is sure to be a major irritant in US-Russian relations.
Energy
The Russian economy depends on oil revenues, and so does the Kremlin to retain support from oligarchs.The problem is that energy prices are under permanent, long-term pressure from the US, where shale technology is getting more and more efficient. The US is now a major (and growing) energy exporter, and Trump is doing everything he can to ramp up production and ramp down prices.
The impact on Russia is not his primary concern here. He’s more concerned with the positive impact of lower prices on the US economy. But the impact on Russia is real, nonetheless, and Trump means to exploit it.
On his recently completed trip, the president said:
Let me be clear about one crucial point. The United States will never use energy to coerce your nations, and we cannot allow others to do so,” Trump said at a press conference flanked by European leaders. “You don’t want to have a monopoly or a monopolistic situation. –CNBC story here
Trump did not name Russia, but everyone understood his message. After all, Russia had cut gas supplies to Europe in 2008 over a Ukraine dispute. Trump was saying, in effect, that we intend to stop that blackmail by giving you an alternative supplier.
Bottom Line
The possible connections between Russia and the Trump campaign are worth a thorough investigation, as Mueller is doing.
But don’t be mislead by Democrats’ talking tough: they did little to buttress Central European defenses during the Obama years. Pres. Obama had no intention of increasing US hydrocarbon production, if he could prevent it. (He couldn’t, thanks to new technology.) Lower energy prices it contradicted his broader concerns about fossil fuels and global warming. Fracking technology beat his regulatory onslaught, just as it beat the Saudis’ attempt to drive them out of business with low energy prices.
For all Trump’s inexplicably warm language about Putin, his actions tell a different story. He’s selling arms to Poland, pressuring Europeans to pay up for NATO, unlocking American oil reserves to lower prices over the long-term, and working to ween Europe from Russian natural.
Taken together, these actions put enormous pressure on a Kremlin underperforming economically, highly dependent on oil prices, and overstretched by its foreign commitment.
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What Is Trump’s Russia Policy? Who Knows?
Trump: Putin said Russia didn’t do it. I accepted this.
Trump: We must work closely with Russia. (on Cyber Security, too?)
Trump in Warsaw: We will defend the West against threats from an expansive Russia.
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Nikki Haley: We know it was the Russians. Everyone knows it was the Russians.Nikki Haley: We don’t trust Russia, never will.
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Trump: US and Russia agree not to meddle in each others domestic affairs.
Tillerson: Russia must restore Ukraine territory.
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Comment: Well, thanks. That clarifies things.
There are not only too many hands on the driver’s wheel, there’s no clear sense of where this car is going.
Strategic ambiguity is fine–as long as the ambiguity is in their head, not yours.
Hat tip to Michael Lipson -
Trump’s Powerful Speech in Poland (my column at Real Clear Politics)
President Trump’s speech in Warsaw was the best statement yet of his foreign policy. It
- Showed a clear-eyed recognition of the threats from Russia and radical Islam,
- Promised continued U.S. engagement in Europe, and
- Offered to support Poland against Moscow.
He wrapped it all in a full-throated defense of Western civilization and its achievements.
To the people of Central Europe, who live under the Kremlin’s threatening shadow, it said, “We hear you. We believe you. And we will work with you to defend something precious.”
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ZipDialog Roundup for Friday, July 7
Articles chosen with care. Comments welcomed. Linked articles in bold purple
◆ Trump’s speech in Poland: The most important foreign-policy statement of his presidency (The White House text of the speech is here)
It was actually quite eloquent, especially in its recitation of Poland’s uprising against the Nazis in August 1944 and the Soviet Army waiting across the river until the Nazis killed all of them. It offered a clear statement about the achievements of the West–achievements worth defending. And it promised strong US participation in NATO.
It offered a sharp criticism of Putin’s expansive foreign policy and the risks it posed in Europe and the Middle East
Comment: The Poles welcomed the speech, understandably so.
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McConnell indicates he may not have the votes for a Republican healthcare bill (The Hill)“If my side is unable to agree on an adequate replacement, then some kind of action with regard to private health insurance markets must occur,” McConnell said at a Rotary Club meeting in Kentucky on Thursday, according to multiple reports.
Comment: In other words, I’ll work with the Democrats to do something. In that case, the Republicans might defect.
This is turning into one fine mess.
◆ Leftists, Anarchists clash with German police ahead of G20 summit in Hamburg (Deutsche Welle)
DW calls them “anti-capitalist protests”
◆ Muslim groups in Indonesia, Malaysia call for boycott of Starbucks because of its support for gay rights (Chicago Tribune)
The groups were apparently reacting to comments made several years ago by former CEO Howard Schultz in support of gay rights that drew renewed attention amid an increasingly anti-LGBT climate in both of the predominantly Muslim countries. –Chicago Tribune
Comment: Gee, I hope this isn’t a setback for “intersectionality” among US progressives.
◆ CNN’s troubles show up in the ratings. It is now #13. Fox (#1), MSNBC (#2) both doing well. (Scribd)
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Why those who see Europe going it alone are wrong
[This post responds to an interesting opinion piece by Prof. Henry Ferrell in the Washington Post.]
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◆ Those who foresee a European reacting to the Trump presidency by moving to go it alone are wrong.
Their error may come from wishful thinking or foreboding. But the real problem is one of collective action. That’s been true for a long time, and it still is.
In the absence of true federal statehood –which will not happen — Europeans lack the capacity, the coherence, and the consensus that would enable them to act as a serious great world power.
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The EU is big and important, but it is still weak in crucial ways
The European Union (EU) encompasses 28 countries and 500 million people, but on the key dimensions of national security, national sovereignty, fiscal union (i.e., a genuine federal budget), and national identity, it remains 28 separate countries.Moreover, Germany, though seen as the natural leader by dint of population and economic strength, spends just 1.2 % of GDP on defense.
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The Bottom Line
In the absence of true federal statehood –which will not happen — Europeans lack the capacity, the coherence, and the consensus that would enable them to act as a serious great world power.
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Robert Lieber, a professor at Georgetown, is one of the country’s leading analysts of US foreign policy, with special interests in the Middle East, Europe, and energy.
His most recent book is Retreat and Its Consequences: American Foreign Policy and the Problem of World Order (Cambridge University Press).
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ZipDialog Roundup for Saturday, May 27
Articles chosen with care. Comments welcomed. Linked articles in bold purple
◆ Comment: Trump’s Trip in a Nutshell
Saudi: Completely reverses Obama’s disastrous tilt toward Iran, reorients US policy to fight Iran and terrorism, makes a promising effort to incorporate a large coalition of Muslim states in the fight; good speech, too- Israel: Hard to say whether the Palestinian-Israel talks will go anywhere; what Trump did in Saudi does set a positive context, but it is still a stretch; the negatives are that Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas will do everything they can to stop it, and the Palestinians have no effective government to make peace with, nor has their population come to grips with the far-reaching and permanent concessions they will have to make; the Israelis have no confidence that a peace deal would be adhered to or give them more security
- NATO: Telling the Europeans the hard truth that they need to pay up is good. What’s bad is Trump’s failure to restate the core principle of NATO, that an attack on one is an attack on all (Article 5). That omission could send a catastrophic signal to Russia about the vulnerable Baltic states, which are NATO members. The only reasonable explanation is that Trump is signaling the Europeans that, if you don’t pay up, you cannot expect us to treat you as full alliance partners. Very risky business.
◆ Jared Kushner’s talk with Russians during transition included possibility of establishing back channel to discuss issues such as Syria (Washington Post)
Jared Kushner and Russia’s ambassador to Washington discussed the possibility of setting up a secret and secure communications channel between Trump’s transition team and the Kremlin, using Russian diplomatic facilities in an apparent move to shield their pre-inauguration discussions from monitoring, according to U.S. officials briefed on intelligence reports. . . .The meeting also was attended by Michael Flynn, Trump’s first national security adviser.
The White House disclosed the meeting only in March, playing down its significance. But people familiar with the matter say the FBI now considers the encounter, as well as another meeting Kushner had with a Russian banker, to be of investigative interest.
Kislyak reportedly was taken aback by the suggestion of allowing an American to use Russian communications gear at its embassy or consulate — a proposal that would have carried security risks for Moscow as well as the Trump team. –Washington Post
Comment: Initial public interest has focused on the idea of a “back channel.” That’s not what’s important here; back channel communications are common. What’s important here is two things. First, the idea of using the Russians’ equipment to communicate this is amazingly amateurish and reckless (or at least at seems that way to me, as a non-professional in secret communications with adversaries). This scheme was probably Flynn’s misjudgment and Kushner’s inexperience. Second, it says the Trump team was extremely concerned the Obama administration was monitoring everything they had to figure out a different way to communicate securely.
A third issue is bound to come up. What did they want to talk about? If they were talking about Syria, you could criticize them for undermining the sitting president. If they were doing anything that affected the business interests of private parties–and there is no indication they were–then that would be corruption.
◆ Hillary reappears at Wellesley Commencement, bitter, and attacking Trump (Washington Post)Comment: This has to be a Republican plot. It has to be.
Only the Republicans could possibly gain from having Hillary out there hectoring the crowds, her shrill voice and tone-deaf delivery proving she still cannot give a decent speech, despite her having received tens of millions for giving them. (That’s a cruel joke, of course. She was paid because she and Bill provided access to power. It was a corrupt, rent-extraction game on a vast scale.)
For Democrats, the real problem is that she reminds people of the none-too-glorious past and makes it harder for the party to develop new faces for the future. To recharge things, the Democrats need some new voices. It would help if they were not yet living in a retirement community on Social Security and a Reverse Mortgage.
◆ US, worried about North Korea, plans a test shoot-down of ICBM (ABC)
Comment: The dangers from North Korean nukes are real and present. Their last test was a solid-fuel rocket (which means it can be launched quickly) and went to a very high altitude (which means it can already hit targets as far away as Guam).
To kill these intercontinental missiles, which leave the atmosphere, is different from killing shorter-range missiles.
The US has been working on this incredibly complex technical task since Reagan proposed the Strategic Defense Initiative (Star Wars). The latest iteration is what they will be testing.
There is a partisan-political dimension here, too, aside from the need to fund the program. Now that America needs a serious anti-missile defense to protect against a North Korean attack on the continental US, people might want to look back and ask who has opposed, undermined, and underfunded that research at every stage over the past three decades. These political opponents, unlike North Korean missiles, won’t be especially hard to identify.
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