Zip Dialog

  • Home
  • News Feed
  • Contact Us
  • Archives

Interest Rates

  • ZipDialog Roundup for Thursday, July 13

    By Charles Lipson
    Thursday, July 13, 2017 0 Corruption, Donald Trump, Economic Growth, Interest Rates, Kim Jong Un, Lobbying, Loretta Lynch, North Korea, Obama Administration, Odd Crime, Russia, Trump-Russia Investigation, ZipDialog Roundup of News Beyond the Front Page Brazil Permalink

    Articles chosen with care. Comments welcomed. Linked articles in bold purple

    ◆ US had a clear shot at killing Kim Jong Un recently but decided not to pull the trigger (Yahoo News)

    They had him in their sights when he went to the ICBM launch. The fear, of course, is that a US strike would begin a devastating war.

    Comment: So, what’s behind this leak? The US is sending a very threatening message to Kim. Move against us and you die. Or you might want to live underground for a while.

    ◆ Politico reports: White House aides feeling ‘helpless’ as Trump Jr. scandal explodes

    The news in the story is that key White House aides are not bothering to play down this meeting as fake news or a false scandal, though some of Trump’s staunchest supporters do.

    Comment: The in-fighting will increase and, with it, the leaks. 

    If you think it’s bad now, imagine how much worse it gets if Congress cannot enact bills on healthcare and tax reform.

    ◆ Another strange aspect of the “Russian lawyer” story: Why did Loretta Lynch’s DOJ give her special permission to come to the US? (The Hill)

    This revelation means it was the Obama Justice Department that enabled the newest and most intriguing figure in the Russia-Trump investigation to enter the country without a visa. –The Hill

    Comment: She appears to have been given permission to come to do some specific legal work for a client but quickly shifted over to lobbying for Russian sanctions relief.

    ◆ Another day in Florida: Instagram model arrested for attacking police during nude encounter at Florida hotel (Fox News)

    According to the Clearwater Police report obtained by The Smoking Gun, [25-year old Brissa] Dominguez had trespassed onto the Edge Hotel’s property at approximately 4:20 a.m. on July 5. Officer Richard Edmonds later arrived on the scene to find Dominguez naked, so he handed her a towel. But instead of covering up, Dominguez used the towel to “strike [Edmonds] in the face by swinging it in a whipping motion.”

    Dominguez then proceeded to kick at the responding officers. The police report says she also tried biting and spitting on an officer before delivering a “mule kick” to Edmonds as police attempted to restrain her.

    ◆ Brazil’s former leader, Lula da Silva, indicted for corruption  (Washington Post)

    Comment: The corruption seems to have been pervasive in his government and that of his party.

    ◆ Fed Chair Janet Yellen: US economy strong enough to warrant more interest-rate increases  (Washington Post)

    Comment: Barring some shock, expect a couple more increases this year.

    ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦

     

     

     

  • Robust job growth. Implication: More interest-rate hikes coming

    By Charles Lipson
    Thursday, June 1, 2017 0 Economic Growth, Economy, Interest Rates, Quickie No tags Permalink

    ADP is a private firm that does its own surveys of the job market, independent of the regular government reports.

    The headline: Private sector job growth ‘rip-roaring’ in May: ADP (Fox Business)

    Quickie Comment: Assuming the official report confirms ADP’s survey, the evidence is building that the economy is back so more Fed interest rate hikes will be coming this year.

    ♦♦♦♦♦

    “Quickies” are a new feature at ZipDialog.

    They are, as the name wryly implies, very short, usually a link to a story and a brief comment.

  • ZipDialog Roundup for Thursday, March 30

    By Charles Lipson
    Thursday, March 30, 2017 0 China, Chinese Economy, Chinese security and military, Cybersecurity, Economy, Election 2016, Employment Unemployment, FBI, Homeland Security, Human Interest, Interest Rates, James Comey, Mexico, Obituaries, Russia, Surveillance, Terrorism in US homeland, US foreign policy, ZipDialog Roundup of News Beyond the Front Page 1960s radicals Permalink

    Topics and articles chosen with care. Linked articles in bold purple

    ◆ State Department official arrested; accused of economic spying for China  (Los Angeles Times)

    A longtime State Department employee [Candace Claiborne] was arrested Wednesday and charged with repeatedly lying about her contacts with Chinese businessmen who had plied her with thousands of dollars in cash and gifts to glean inside information about U.S. economic policy, U.S. officials said. . . .

    The case offers a window into Beijing’s efforts to gain an advantage in its economic jockeying with the United States, and how business owners in China often double as agents for state intelligence. –Los Angeles Times

    ◆ FBI director Comey wanted to publicly expose Russian spying before the election; Obama White House blocked him  (Newsweek)

    Comey pitched the idea of writing an op-ed about the Russian campaign during a meeting in the White House’s situation room in June or July. . . .

    [The op-ed] would have included much of the same information as the bombshell declassified intelligence report released January 6, which said Russian President Vladimir Putin tried to influence the presidential election, the source said.–Newsweek

    ◆ Federal Reserve says the US economy is finally back to normal  (CNN Money). Unemployment is officially under 5% and adding 200k jobs monthly, which the Fed considers full employment for its purposes. This data is why the Fed is gradually raising interest rates, hoping to keep the economy from overheating.

    ◆ Attorney General for Mexican state of Nayarit arrested in San Diego on drug trafficking charges  (San Diego Union-Tribune)

    Comment: You hate to see their courts and law enforcement system besmirched.

    ◆ Dead: The misanthrope who wrote “The Anarchist Cookbook” in the late 1960s. It featured recipes for bombs, gun silencers, and all sorts of weapons. It sold over 2 million copies and 

    is believed to have been used as a source in heinous acts of violence since its publication in 1971, most notably the killings of 12 students and one teacher in 1999 at Columbine High School in Littleton, Colo. –New York Times

    Comment: Oddly, given his contributions to this world, he died of natural causes.  I have deliberately omitted his name.

    ◆ Headline: “This Chicago man saved $1 million by the time he was 30. Here’s how he did it.” (Chicago Tribune)

    Let me explain how he did it:

    1. He made pretty good money, though not fantastic amounts
    2. He didn’t spend very much.

    Honestly, that’s what the article says. And, frankly, it is good advice if you want to accumulate resources and can restrain your consumption.

    Try to make good money and don’t splurge. If your investments get good returns, that helps, too.

    Comment: Works every time.

    But I would add: as you accumulate, give some to worthy charities. Others less fortunate need your help.

    ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦

     

  • ZipDialog Roundup for Friday, March 18

    By Charles Lipson
    Friday, March 17, 2017 1 Congress, Courts and the Law, Donald Trump, Economy, Employment Unemployment, House of Representatives, Housing Market, Immigration, Immigration from Middle East and North Africa, Interest Rates, Israel, Israel Defense Forces, Senate, Syria, US foreign policy, ZipDialog Roundup of News Beyond the Front Page Socialism, St. Patrick's Day, Venezuela Permalink

    Hand-picked and farm-fresh–
    ⇒Linked articles in bold purple

    ◆ Happy St. Patrick’s Day

    ◆ House, Senate Republicans don’t care for Trump’s Budget (Washington Post)

    • Defense not raised enough, say hawks
    • Welfare programs cut too deeply, say some rural congressmen

    Nobody thinks the budget is going anywhere. Obama’s didn’t, either.

    The House GOP plan to revise the Affordable Care Act is embattled, as is Trump’s push to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border. His tax reform and infrastructure plans have yet to get off the ground.

    As he passes the halfway mark of his first 100 days, Trump is under increasing pressure to show that he can make good on his ambitious promises. –Washington Post

    ◆ Two Federal judges block Trump’s latest travel ban (New York Times)

    Comment: I am no lawyer, but I do think about constitutional issues. In the temporary immigration ban and court rulings, I see several thorny constitutional/legal issues:

    • First, the President has very clear, wide-ranging statutory authority to issues these bans, using his national-security authority
    • The President’s authority in this area has not been limited by Supreme Court rulings, as far as I know
    • On the other hand, the US does have various laws, court rulings, and regulations that prevent religious discrimination and prohibit “religious tests.” The courts blocking Trump seem to rely heavily on those laws and rulings.
    • To say that non-citizens, who are not already on US soil, have some constitutional rights related to our immigration laws is very striking–and perhaps novel. The courts know that and have been very reluctant to even make those arguments. They seem to say that the rights apply to US citizens who want their sister to come here from a banned country. Whether that is a stretch or not will have to be determined by higher courts.
    • The courts’ rulings against Trump explicitly say they are not ruling based solely on the text of the Presidential order. Rather, they are “putting this it in context.” The context is that candidate Trump explicitly promised a ban on Muslim immigration. Since the banned countries are Muslim, that must have been his intent. (His counter-argument is that other Muslim countries are not included in the ban and, in any case, the courts have no business ruling on this matter, which is solely within the President’s discretion.)
    • SUMMARY COMMENT: I see four big questions here.
      1. Should court rulings be limited to a law’s explicit text or should they take into account the broader political “context” (and, if so, how should judges determine the appropriate context)?
      2. Previous court decisions (on other issues) have explicitly ruled that a candidate’s statements are not relevant to subsequent laws and regulations, passed after the candidate takes office. Why shouldn’t that restriction apply here?
      3. Do these courts imply that non-US citizens, who are not already on US soil, have some constitutional rights that the courts must protect?
      4. Are these rulings–and the clear distaste for Pres. Trump they evince–the prelude to courts assuming a much larger role in national-security issues than they have previously? That would be an important change. It would also put the courts in an very tenuous position. They lack the information (including classified information) and the expertise to make policy judgments in this area. That is why they have normally deferred to the President unless there were clear constitutional violations. The courts are vulnerable to arguments that they are overreaching to impose their own preferred policies in an area where they should be more restrained. They would rightly receive withering criticism if those rulings lead to bad outcomes.

    ◆ Syria fired missiles into Israel after the Israeli Air Force struck targets in Syria (Associated Press)

    Israeli Channel 10 TV reported that Israel deployed its Arrow defense system for the first time against a real threat and hit an incoming missile intercepting it before it exploded in Israel. –Associated Press

    The Jerusalem Post also has a story, reporting Israeli air defense sirens sounded in the Jordan Valley.

    Comment: Israel has been very careful about being drawn into the Syrian conflict, but it does have two vital interests that could lead to military strikes. Both involve Iran. The Israelis do not want to see Iran’s Revolutionary Guard shipping missiles to Hezbollah (based in southern Lebanon) through Syria. They have bombed those shipments when they learn of them. They are increasingly concerned that the Iranians are moving troops into Syrian territory bordering Israel.

    ◆ US economy’s strength apparent in new data on housing, unemployment, and consumer confidence (Reuters)

    Interest rates are slowly returning to normal, too, after years of near-zero rates, designed to buoy a flagging economy.

    U.S. financial markets were little moved by the data as investors digested the Fed’s decision on Wednesday to raise its overnight benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 0.75 percent to 1.00 percent. The U.S. central bank also forecast two more rate hikes this year. —Reuters

    ◆ Venezuela: When a socialist economy has no bread, they know exactly how to solve the problem. They nationalize the bakeries. (Miami Herald)

    Comment: Sean Penn had no comment.

    ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦

    zd-hat-tip-facing-inward-100px-w-margin♥ Hat Tip for helpful suggestions:
    ◆ Barry Shaw
     for the Israel missile story

     

  • ZipDialog Roundup for Thursday, March 2

    By Charles Lipson
    Thursday, March 2, 2017 0 Barack Obama, Congress, Crimea, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Economy, Election 2016, Employment Unemployment, Europe, Interest Rates, International relations, Jeff Sessions, Kim Jong Un, Media Bias, NATO, North Korea, Putin, Republican Party, Russia, Senate, Ukraine, ZipDialog Roundup of News Beyond the Front Page Baltic, Brooklyn Bridge, CNN, Sweden, Valerie Jarrett Permalink

    Hand-picked and farm-fresh–
    ⇒Linked articles in bold purple

    ◆ Comment on allegations against AG Jeff Sessions: If there is anything substantive in the allegations about Jeff Sessions, that would be a big deal. Brief discussions are not, but knowingly misleading a Senate Committee would be. Obviously, the attacks are part of a broader Democratic effort to deligitimate the Trump Administration, which is on the edge of a Witch Hunt, but the underlying facts and the truthfulness of Sessions’ testimony will determine.

    In any case, it would be wise for Sessions to accede to Democratic demands to remove himself (though perhaps not recuse himself) from any investigation of Russian ties to the Trump campaign.

    Meanwhile, the Democrats are edging up to asking, “Are you now or have you ever been . . .?” They will ask it now of every Trump nominee.

    ◆ Stay Classy: Valerie Jarrett has moved into Pres. Obama’s house in DC which “is now the nerve center for their plan to mastermind the insurgency against President Trump,” according to the Daily Mail.

    Comment: As with so much of Jarrett’s activities, this is the opposite of wisdom. Why. First, because it leave fingerprints. Second, because it keeps Obama and his team prominently in the party’s leadership at a time when the Democrats desperately need new leadership . . . after their party was decimated at all levels during the Obama years. Third, because it highlights the Democratic Party’s role as full-frontal obstructionists. Other than that, smart move.

    Sad-but-true footnote: CNN has actually hired Valerie’s daughter as their main reporter on the Department of Justice. Are these CNN executives so clueless or so partisan they don’t understand that you cannot do this and present yourself as a disinterested news organization?

    ◆ Excellent economic news: “U.S. jobless claims near 44-year-low as labor market tightens” (Reuters)

    The stronger labor market combined with rising inflation could push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this month.

    It was the 104th straight week that claims remained below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market. That is the longest stretch since 1970, when the labor market was much smaller. It is now at or close to full employment, with an unemployment rate of 4.8 percent. –Reuters

    The offsetting news this week is that economic growth in 2016 Q4 was still sluggish.

    Comment: For all the criticism of Pres. Obama’s economic management–some deserved, some not–he deserves praise for nearly all of the 104 weeks of low jobless claims.

    ◆ North Korea sez: “Heart attack, not nerve agent, killed Kim Jong Nam”  (Washington Post)

    Comment: And if you don’t agree, you, too, will die of a heart attack.

    In other news, Pyongyang is offering going-out-of-business prices on the Brooklyn Bridge.

    ◆ Think Baltic tensions with Russia are high? Well, Sweden just brought back the draft  (BBC)

    Non-aligned Sweden is worried about Russia’s Baltic military drills.

    In September, a Swedish garrison was restored to Gotland, a big island lying between the Swedish mainland and the three ex-Soviet Baltic states.

    Why is this happening?

    Ms Nyh Radebo [speaking for the Defense Ministry] said the return to conscription was prompted by “the security change in our neighbourhood”.

    “The Russian illegal annexation of Crimea [in 2014], the conflict in Ukraine and the increased military activity in our neighbourhood are some of the reasons,” she said. –BBC

    Comment: They aren’t drafting very many (only 4,000), but it’s the thought that counts.

    ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦

    zd-hat-tip-facing-inward-100px-w-margin♥ Hat Tip for helpful suggestions:
    ◆ Ed Vidal
     for Valerie Jarrett story

     

  • ZipDialog’s Roundup of News Beyond the Front Page . . Friday, February 17

    By Charles Lipson
    Friday, February 17, 2017 0 Barack Obama, Brexit, Chicago and Illinois, Corruption, Donald Trump, Economy, House of Representatives, Interest Rates, Media and Reporting, Media Bias, Paul Ryan, Republican Party, US foreign policy, ZipDialog Roundup of News Beyond the Front Page David Plouffe, K. T. McFarland, Rahm Emanuel, Robert Harward, Tony Blair Permalink

    Hand-picked and farm-fresh–
    ⇒Linked articles in bold purple

    ◆ Nobody has seen a presidential press conference remotely like the one Trump gave Thursday. The mainstream media hated it:

    Washington Post: “Donald Trump’s combative, grievance-filled news conference, annotated”. They follow up with this: When governing beckons, Trump keeps campaigning

    Huffington Post: “Trump Attacks ‘Out of Control’ Media in Chaotic Press Conference”

    New York Daily News: “President Trump blasted over social media for ‘sociopathic’ White House press conference”

    ⇒ No major media outlets, at least none I found, gave the news conference a positive view.

    ⇒ A few smaller conservative papers were more positive:

    Washington Times: Trump blasts ‘out of control’ media for ignoring early successes

    ⇒ Finally, a few offered neutral views, emphasizing both the news and the entertaining, heated back-and-forth:

    Business Insider: “NO HOLDS BARRED: Trump, in unprecedented fashion, airs grievances in an epic 77-minute press conference”

    Fox: Trump blasts ‘out of control’ media, defends agenda at heated press conference  . . . President Trump’s feud with the media turned into an all-out war Thursday afternoon.

    So did CNN‘s main headline:

    ◆ National Security Council adviser position still open. Vice Admiral Robert Harward turns it down after being told he could not appoint his own senior staff  (CBS)

    Two sources close to the situation confirm Harward demanded his own team, and the White House resisted.

    Specifically, Mr. Trump told Deputy National Security Adviser K. T. McFarland that she could retain her post, even after the ouster of National Security Adviser Michael Flynn. Harward refused to keep McFarland as his deputy, and after a day of negotiations over this and other staffing matters, Harward declined to serve as Flynn’s replacement. –Major Garrett reporting for CBS

    ◆ Former British PM Tony Blair calls for Brits to “rise up against Brexit”  (BBC)

    Comment: They did rise up, but what they said was “no” to Tony Blair and David Cameron.

    ◆ Paul Ryan says GOP will begin repealing and replacing Obamacare when the House returns from recess next week (USA Today) He’s waiting for the Congressional Budget Office and Joint Committee on Taxation to score the cost of the bill.

    Comment: Trump said much the same thing at his Thursday conference, signalling the movement on both Obamacare and tax cuts will come sooner rather than later.

    ◆ David Plouffe, who managed Obama’s reelection, is fined $90k for illegally lobbying Chicago’s Mayor Rahm Emanuel on behalf of Uber (Chicago Tribune) The issue is letting Uber pick up passengers at Chicago airports.

    Comment: I favor more competition for transportation at the airports, and Chicago has moved to do it. Still, it is disturbing to see the swamp creatures move seamlessly from campaigns to lobbying.

    ◆ Related story: Chicago Alderman questions political operative’s piece of lucrative Midway Airport concessions deal (Chicago Tribune)

    ◆ “Latest Data Signal Solid Momentum for U.S. Economy” (Wall Street Journal)

    Robust consumer spending, an uptick in factory production and firming inflation are pointing to a healthy start in 2017 for the U.S. economy and another interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve, potentially as soon as next month. –Wall Street Journal

    ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦

     

  • ZipDialog’s Roundup of News Beyond the Front Page . .Groundhog’s Day, Feb. 2

    By Charles Lipson
    Thursday, February 2, 2017 1 Britain, Charles Schumer, Democratic Party, Economy, Free Speech, Good News in Higher Ed, Higher education, Interest Rates, Neil Gorsuch, Popular Culture, Supreme Court, Theresa May, ZipDialog Roundup of News Beyond the Front Page Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, Jeremy Corbyn, Public Intellectuals Permalink

    Hand-picked and farm-fresh–
    ⇒Linked articles in bold purple

    ◆ Kudos to Univ. of Washington President for defending free speech on her campus  Seattle Times’ columnist Danny Westneat says “even right-wing nut jobs” like Milo Yiannopoulos deserve it.

    The protesters responded with characteristic good humor and respect for the First Amendment:

    “You are complicit in the violence,” reads one message to [UW President Ana Mari] Cauce.

    “So much for your lecture about the First Amendment,” reads another. “Hundreds of us tried to warn you to cancel this talk. This blood is on your hands.”

    “Collaborator,” charged another. “Appeaser.” –Seattle Times

    Comment: At risk of provoking more violence, let me say, “Mr. Westneat is right, and so is President Cauce.”

    ◆ Meanwhile, the same speaker is cancelled at Berkeley after violent protests (Los Angeles Times)

    ◆ Federal Reserve sees improved economic outlook, leaves interest rates unchanged (New York Times)

    Fed officials predicted in December that they would raise the benchmark rate three times this year. But they have cautioned that changes in fiscal policy could alter those plans. If Mr. Trump and congressional Republicans seek to increase growth, for example by cutting taxes or spending a lot on infrastructure and the military, the Fed could raise rates more quickly.

    If Mr. Trump’s policies weigh on growth, the Fed could move more slowly. –NYT

    ◆ “Whatever happened to public intellectuals?” asks the New Statesman (UK)  (via Arts and Letters Daily)

    The focus is on British philosophers, who once appeared regularly on the BBC and could speak plainly about big issues. They have disappeared from the landscape, to Britain’s loss, says the New Statesman. Now, they say, philosophers only write for each other in obscure journals.

    Comment: No philosopher has ever been seen on American television, except for Homer Simpson.

    ◆ Quote of the Day: Theresa May knee-caps Labour leader (and all-round doofus) Jeremy Corbyn:

    He can lead a protest. I’m leading a country. –Theresa May

    Comment: May’s strength and total self-confidence in destroying Corbyn during Prime Minister’s Question Time was reminiscent of another PM three decades ago

    ◆ Comment: Senate Democrats now caught between “fight” and “flight” over SCOTUS nominee, Neil Gorsuch.

    The base wants blood and a measure of revenge for Republicans’ refusal to vote on Pres. Obama’s nominee for the Court. That makes opposition easy for Senators from Deep Blue states, led by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley, who has already promised to lead a filibuster.

    But there are a half-dozen Democrats facing races in states Trump won easily, and Gorsuch himself has all the right credentials for the appointment.

     

    ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦

    zd-hat-tip-facing-inward-100px-w-margin♥ Hat Tip for helpful suggestions:
    ◆ Bob Lipson
     for the article on free speech at the University of Washington
    ◆ Shlomo Dror for the Theresa May quote

     

  • Home
  • News Feed
  • Contact Us
  • Archives
Copyrights © 2016 Charles Lipson. All Rights Reserved.