That’s the conclusion of the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
The CRFB is a serious, non-partisan organization, and it has looked carefully at both Trump’s and Clinton’s tax and spending proposals. They found the usual party roles reversed: the Democrat is far more restrained than the Republican.
The bottom lines:
- Clinton raises about $1.5 trillion and spends all of it and a little more, according to CRFB projections
- Trump cuts spending by $1.2 trillion but his tax cuts lose $5.8 trillion in revenues plus $700 billion in additional interest payments.
These numbers are obviously conjectural. First, nobody knows if the candidates’ proposals will be enacted. Second, the Trump campaign will say they underestimate the growth effects of his proposed tax cuts, and so on. Still, the numbers are sobering.
To compound the problems, neither candidate has addressed the big driver of long-term budget troubles: entitlement promises that far exceed the government’s capacity to pay for them.
Here is the report, which the CRFB will update if the candidates offer free carnival rides and new ponies in October.
Here are the two key charts.
A word about the CRFB. It is part of Peter G. Peterson’s sustained, thoughtful effort to restore fiscal integrity to the US Government. Peterson was a corporate executive, then Secretary of Commerce under Nixon, and finally a billionaire investor. He knows both the private and public sector well. He is an early signer of the Buffett-Gates pledge to donate much of his fortune to charity. His concerns about the budget transcend party politics, and they are obviously not about personal enrichment.